Canada Greens Pose for Breakthrough

For the first time, the Canadian Green Party stands a realistic chance of winning a seat in current federal election.

It looks like they, after two elections of stagnated support (4.5%), they have intentionally embraced a strategy of vote-concentration. They've done this by forming a non-agression pact style alliance with the Liberals, allowing Green Party leader Elizabeth May to have a strong chance at winning her Central Nova riding in Nova Scotia.

This strategy was enhanced when an independent mp (former Liberal) defected and joined the Greens, giving them a strong shot in his riding (West Vancouver).

They are also running a strong campaign for Vancouver Center, with former BC Green Party leader Adrianne Carr (who led the BC Greens to the best Greens provincial result - 12.4% but no seats).

The Greens also have a chance in Guelph, Ontario.

The Green Party is polling around 8%. When the NDP bottommed out in the federal 1993 election with under 7% they were still able to win 9 seats because their support was very concentrated.

I previously thought that the Green Party would have trouble concentrating its support, as the NDP has benefited from 80 years of labor-party (or pro-labor independent) canidates running in working class districts - and the Greens don't have this class appeal. The Greens have a strong youth appeal.

It now looks like the Greens might be able to rely upon "charismatic leaders", developing a small set of famous party members (perhaps aided by the fact that the Canadian political system and media are more open to covering the Greens than their US counterparts), who might let the party win its first couple seats. Whether or not this strategy leads to a general breakthrough probably depends on if the Greens can win at least one seat (it's still a longshot) and if they can not just hold that seat, but turn it into 10 or more seats.