Turning the Corner on the Recession

We're officially turning the corner on the recession (US, Canada, and I think globally). It's still a recession (and US unemployment is still headed for 10-10.5%), but for the first time the forecasts are getting better.

For a while, I thought it was going to be the worst recession since WW II. I was wrong.

Either the stimulus worked directly, or indirectly by inspiring consumer/business confidence. (I know I haven't got any direct stimulus money, and won't until April 2010).

I'm guessing the Federal Reserve stimulus (low interest rates and the billions of dollars of handouts to corporations) had the largest impact. By contrast, the fiscal stimulus was smaller (half or less the size of the monetary one) and slower (my guess is that at as little as 1/4 or 1/8th of it has been spent).

Lower energy prices are helping too.